Taliban at the Gates

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is absolutely right in saying the Taliban gains in Pakistan pose an “existential threat” to the government in Islamabad. The dangers of the Taliban grabbing more territory go deeper than simply the obvious threat of anti-government guerillas inching towards Islamabad.

Taliban gains in Pakistan reflect the increasing weakness of Pakistan’s civilian government, led by President Asif Ali Zardari. Civilian governments have never done well in Pakistan, where the military is effectively a state of its own that sometimes works with civilian governments – and sometimes not. In 1999, for example, the Pakistani military brought the country to the brink of nuclear war with India while the civilian leadership sat largely uninformed on the sidelines. Western diplomatic intervention helped avert that disaster. Shortly thereafter, of course, military commander Pervez Musharaff took power in a coup. Many in Pakistan, and some in Western capitals, welcomed the move at the time, because the 1999 crisis showed that the civilian government essentially was not a player any more.

Zardari is looking less and less like a player these days as the Taliban extends its control in parts of the country. Taliban fighters are unlikely to storm Islamabad. But their (many) sympathizers and supporters within the Pakistani military and its intelligence wing, the ISI, are likely to get ideas about toppling the civilian government with a coup so long as the Taliban keeps growing stronger.