Will the Mahdi Army Rise Again?

The latest spasm of violence in Baghdad has raised fears among many in Iraq that the Shi’ite Mahdi Army may abandon its standing unilateral cease-fire and return to the business of sectarian revenge killings. Not likely, at least no yet.

Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Mahdi Army, has given no indication that he plans a bloody show of strength in the streets with gunmen. I suspect Sadr, like many in Iraq, will be waiting quietly to see how the next few months unfold before making any major moves. Sending Mahdi Army fighters into the streets of Iraq now would bring them face to face with American forces and create a crisis for which U.S. troops may linger beyond the June deadline to be out of Iraq’s urban areas. Above all Sadr wants to see U.S. troops leave, so he is unlikely to pick a fight now. If Sadr is indeed interested in reasserting his militia, he will do so after U.S. forces move to the sidelines of whatever fighting persists in Iraq as U.S. troops move to go.